Fundstrat co-founder Thomas Lee tweeted a timely reminder against panic-selling on Sept. 28, reminding that the majority of Bitcoin (BTC) gains come in the ten best trading days of the year. In fact, excluding these ten best days, BTC is down 25% per year.
In any given year, the vast majority of gains in Bitcoin price come in just the ten biggest trading days, according to this rule. During the last bull market of 2017, price rose an incredible 1,136% in those ten days. But even during the bear market of 2018, the best ten days saw an overall gain of 66%.
However, exclusion of these days tells a very different story. In most years since 2013, those 355/6 days have seen mainly quite considerable losses.
Whilst 2017 did see gains of impressive 232%, 2018 suffered a loss of 140%. Similarly, 2013 and 2014 have seen losses of 199% and 133% respectively.
In fact, since 2013, excluding those ten best days, Bitcoin has seen annual losses averaging 25%.
Lee cautions against making emotional trading decisions by asking “Are u that good at trading?”
The implication that holding is a better strategy than trading is clear. However, Lee also alludes to thoughts that crypto winter may be back, suggesting that even in bull markets, there will be a large number of heavy loss days.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $8000 mark. This represents an approximate 110% gain for the year to date.